Change the record Mary Lou

22 Jul

This column appeared on Broadsheet.ie on May 29th 2018.

fr-billy-o-dwyer-spinmasterThere have been a few Fr Ted references here over the past few days, so let’s start off with another one. Remember that episode of Fr Ted where the lads need to raise money to fix the water leaks in the parochial house?

You know the one, they destroy the car Bishop Brennan gives them for the raffle and thus have to rig the draw to ensure that Dougal’s ticket wins it. Ted gets Fr Billy “Spinmaster” O’Dwyer to do the disco before the draw, but there’s a problem. Fr Billy has only one record with him and it’s “Ghost Town” by The Specials. Undeterred, the Spinmaster plays it over and over and over again, oblivious to the fact that the crowd have stopped listening.

I like Ghost Town. Not only is it a good song, it is a serious piece of popular social commentary, but even the loyalist Special fan would concede that forcing anyone to listen to it over and over again could turn them against it.

This is something that Sinn Féin’s “spinmasters” Mary Lou MacDonald and Michelle O’Neill could do well to bear in mind.

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My thoughts for @guardian on #8thRef result. It shows that #Irish voters understand nuance and complexity

26 May

The Guardian newspaper asked me for my quick analysis of the Irish abortion referendum results. My comments appear on their live blog.  Below is a fuller version of my comments, including a link to what I believe was one of the most perceptive (and overlooked) tweets on the campaign.   

results full

Final Full Results via RTÉ – https://www.rte.ie/news/eighth-amendment/results/

“A landslide. To call the scale and extent of the Yes vote anything else is to way understate and underestimate it.

While most people saw a Yes majority coming, very few – and this includes the pundits and commentators – forecast anything on this scale.

The general assumption right up to the last week was that the Yes would win decisively, with a comfortable margin, leaving the No side in the low 40s nationally and tipping just over the 50% mark in the western, more rural constituencies.

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My #8thRef what result do you expect @Twitter poll: full results are in. It’s just for fun – vital to #GetOutAndVote #GoVote tomorrow

24 May

Twitter poll Final

On Tuesday last I posted a simple poll on Twitter.

It asked people what they think the outcome of Friday’s referendum will be – as opposed to how they personally plan to vote.

The poll closed just now, with 2,104 votes.

The results are:

  1. 44% See a Yes Win with Yes getting somewhere between 50% and 54%
  2. 23% See a Yes Win with Yes getting somewhere between 54 and 58%
  3. 18% See a NO Win (I did not offer a choice of No margins)
  4. 15% See a Yes Win with Yes getting over 58% of the vote

The relative position of the four options offered has not changed since early on Wednesday.

This was just an exercise in the “wisdom of crowds” – the decision will made tomorrow by the people who show up…. so:

day306_lowres

#GoVote Logo via LisaCongdon.com from 2012

 

#GFA20: when voting united us – Why Seamus Mallon should be honoured

24 May

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Truth and Reconciliation Platform (TaRP) event at Kennedy Institute, Maynooth University: Stephen Travers, Seamus Mallon, Eugene Reavey and Dr. Rory O’Hanlon (Pic via https://twitter.com/TaR_Platform)

In a week when a referendum campaign that has managed to divide some of us comes, mercifully, to an end; it is worth recalling that this week, in fact this day, marks the twentieth anniversary of a referendum that briefly united us across this island.

Twenty years ago today, almost 2.5 million people across this island went to the polls to vote on accepting the Good Friday Agreement. Just over 2.1 million of them said Yes to the Agreement while 360,000 voted against.

The results, North and South, endorsed what the parties had agreed at Stormont Buildings and saw Northern Ireland set to see a return of devolution based on partnership government.

Heady days. But anyone who thought that having such a sizeable public endorsement and mandate for the Good Friday Agreement was going to ensure its smooth and speedy implementation was soon to be sorely disappointed.

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The formats of recent #8thRef debates makes the case to set up an independent electoral commission now.

24 May

This piece was written for Broadsheet.ie and appeared online on Tuesday May 15th 2018, on the morning after RTÉ One’s Claire Byrne Show debate on the abortion referendum: see HERE.  

CB debateOn the morning after the night before’s hyped-up #8thRef Claire Byrne debate: committed Yes campaigners are insisting that the Yes side won it while staunch No activists are declaring with equal ferocity that their side prevailed.

In my own view, neither side significantly moved the dial among undecided voters with the real loser in the whole sorry mess being public sector broadcasting.

This was not the fault of the presenter/moderator Claire Byrne or any of the lead speakers for the Yes or No sides, but of the folk in RTÉ who decided that having daytime TV style confrontation in front of a cheering crowd was the best way to discuss a fraught, complex and emotionally charged issue.

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Useful infographic from: @Jack__Milgram: Language in Numbers: The Most Captivating Statistics

14 May

languageI am happy to bring you this handy Infographic from my colleague, the blogger and writer Jack Milgram, entitled: Language in Numbers: The Most Captivating Statistics

You can down load it from here:  https://custom-writing.org/#language or see it by clicking “continue reading” below.

You can contact Jack Milgram as follows:

wCW blog                      e: milgram.jack@yahoo.com
t@Jack__Milgram           fJack.Milgram

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Dean Acheson, Brex-iteers and Theresa May or…. Britain still looking for a role? #Brexit

14 May

This column appeared on Broadsheet.ie on May 8th 2018 under the title: There is no Future in England’s Dreaming 

ACHESON

I opened my third Broadsheet column with a 1962 quote from the former US Secretary of State, Dean Acheson:

 “Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role”.

When that column appeared at the end of May 2016 the U.K. Brexit referendum vote was still three weeks away. We still had hope.

Almost two years later and Acheson’s quote seems truer than ever. Over the past few weeks we have seen increasing evidence that the UK Cabinet is incapable of agreeing a common and unified position on the Customs Union and the Single Market.

On one side you have the beleaguered Prime Minister and Tory leader arguing for a “customs partnership” that would see the UK just outside the existing EU Customs Union but remaining so aligned with it and EU standards as to render borders unnecessary.

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Be careful what you twitch for…

2 May

My Broadsheet column from May 1st looks at the poor political environment against which the CervicalCheck scandal is playing out  

Capture

Last week’s Dáil furore and the heightened tensions between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael persuaded me to use this week’s column to discuss the worsening relations between the main government and the main opposition parties.

I still intend to do that, but in much lesser detail. The scandal engulfing the CervicalCheck scheme and the torment that Vicky Phelan, her family and hundreds of other families have been put through by the State and the HSE makes any discussion of the friction between the parties pale by comparison.

But, as experienced political commentators have noted, the screening scandal has the makings of major political crisis if it were to emerge that more was known by the Department and, by extension, by a Minister.

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#Brexit-busting takes more than just one big ship

25 Apr

This column appeared on Broadsheet.ie on Tuesday April 24th

celine

Up to last Friday it was difficult to find a good visual representation for Brexit in Ireland.

Yes, there were maps showing the six counties in one colour and the 26 in another, but apart from those or some grainy photos of border posts and black coated customs men standing behind old tin signs emblazoned “Stad”, there were few clear, defining symbols for Brexit in an Irish context.

That all changed last Friday.

The change came in the form of a ship. But not just any ship. This one, christened the MV Celine by the Taoiseach and assorted other lesser celebrities, is the world’s largest short sea, roll-on roll-off cargo vessel. It will directly connect Ireland to the European continent via Rotterdam and Zeebrugge, by-passing the UK entirely.

As images go, it is an impressive one. But the image-makers real triumph lay in finding an appropriate nickname for the newly named ship. While “Celine” may be the official name that adorns the ship’s champagne drenched hull, the spinners on the quayside were intent that the media – and by extension we – call it by their chosen soubriquet: “the Brexit Buster”.

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We back a two-state solution, so time to recognize both #Palestine #Israel

18 Apr

This column originally appeared on @Broadsheet.ie on April 17, 2018

Qalandiya

The Qalandiya crossing outside Ramallah. Pic taken by me in Nov 2004

The story of the kerfuffle caused by the Lord Mayor of Dublin’s trip to the West Bank reminded me of how my own ill-fated trip there, back in 2004. That visit ended in me sitting in my boxers in a security room in Ben Gurion Airport. A fate fortunately not visited on our city’s first citizen.

I had been visiting Israel and the West Bank along with three colleagues. We were part of a group from Glencree that was organizing study visits to Ireland by Israeli and Palestinian politicians to meet key players in the Irish peace process, both North and South.

Our purpose was to catch up with some of those who had been on the last visit and prepare for the next one. Our four-day trip, had been planned in conjunction with our Department of Foreign affairs and had the support of the Israeli Embassy in Dublin.

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