The Guardian newspaper asked me for my quick analysis of the Irish abortion referendum results. My comments appear on their live blog. Below is a fuller version of my comments, including a link to what I believe was one of the most perceptive (and overlooked) tweets on the campaign.
“A landslide. To call the scale and extent of the Yes vote anything else is to way understate and underestimate it.
While most people saw a Yes majority coming, very few – and this includes the pundits and commentators – forecast anything on this scale.
The general assumption right up to the last week was that the Yes would win decisively, with a comfortable margin, leaving the No side in the low 40s nationally and tipping just over the 50% mark in the western, more rural constituencies.
Continue reading “My thoughts for @guardian on #8thRef result. It shows that #Irish voters understand nuance and complexity”
On Tuesday last I posted a simple poll on Twitter.
It asked people what they think the outcome of Friday’s referendum will be – as opposed to how they personally plan to vote.
The poll closed just now, with 2,104 votes.
The results are:
- 44% See a Yes Win with Yes getting somewhere between 50% and 54%
- 23% See a Yes Win with Yes getting somewhere between 54 and 58%
- 18% See a NO Win (I did not offer a choice of No margins)
- 15% See a Yes Win with Yes getting over 58% of the vote
The relative position of the four options offered has not changed since early on Wednesday.
This was just an exercise in the “wisdom of crowds” – the decision will made tomorrow by the people who show up…. so:
Here is my analysis of where the two sides in the upcoming referendum on repealing the 8th Amendment currently stand. It first appeared on Broadsheet.ie here
Back in late 2014 I was invited to assist the nascent Marriage Equality campaign with its preparations. They asked me to help draft a campaign playbook, or ‘campaign bible’ as it was labelled by some, along the lines of the one I had put together for the successful 2013 Seanad referendum.
As part of my groundwork I tried to get some insights into the mindset of No voters. To this end I went for a few beers and a chat with an old political colleague who I knew to be quite socially conservative. I dragged the conversation slowly and steadily around to the topic of gay marriage and prepared myself for the explosion. None came.
“Have you decided how you will vote?”, I asked Continue reading “Stop the campaign, I want to get off – where #repealthe8th campaigns stand now…”